No Chance At All

The Band reviews Probability Zero:

Probability Zero demolishes TENS so utterly, the preface should be “PULL!”

This is the first version of a new book by Vox Day that demonstrates the mathematical impossibility of the Theory of Evolution by Natural Selection [TENS]. Given how big the House of Lies and reality-facing counterculture are around here, it demands attention. There may not be a more important pillar for its entire fake ontology.

Probability Zero strikes the heart of what the setup post called conflict between The Science! and the Scientific Method. This matters for more than intellectual reasons. Readers know personal responsibility is a priority around here. But we also live in a complex socio-culture that has unavoidable influence on us. From basic things, like adding tax and regulatory burdens to organic community demands. Up to the fundamental beliefs that set the public ethos…

Probability Zero starts by setting aside the religious and philosophical arguments, just like The Science! does. It accepts the discourse on its terms, by adhering to the “scientific” arguments it claims to adhere to. To be defined by. Full concession of TENS huffing’s own epistemological standards. Then lays out the mathematical parameters claimed to be involved in the TENS process. No additional yeah, buts. Just what is accepted in the literature. And then lets the logical realities of math blow the whole mess into a smoking crater so apocalyptically vast, I’ll never be able to see biologists the same way again.

There’s no need to recap the statistical arguments, they’re clear and complete. The kernel is that if mutations take an amount of time to appear and fix, that much time has to be available for the theory to be possible.

This was clear when MITTENS was pointed out. Even before it had a name. General conditions of possibility make it obvious once seen. But the full demonstration lights up that gulf between The Science! and science as modes of knowledge production. The whole point of science is empirical conformation and abstract reasoning in concert. Day’s observation that evolutionary biologists have replaced experimentation with pure modeling was legitimately surprising. Apparently there still was a bar, however low. Not anymore.

Consider what problems innumeracy might present for pure modelers. Because the level is staggering. To the point where a simple arithmetic mean is incomprehensible. No hyperbole. Probability Zero describes blank stares when asked for the average rate of mutation. The ongoing idiocy over parallel vs. sequential mutation is illustrative. The total number of mutations separating species includes all of them. Parallel, sequential, or however else. Hence the word “total”. And dividing “total” by “amount of time” gives a simple, unweighted average number. The rate.

I’m not exaggerating. There was always the joke that biologists were fake scientists that couldn’t do math. Easier for premed GPAs too. But the assumption was that it was relative. Lighter than physics or chemistry, but still substantial compared to social sciences or the arts. And that would be wrong. There are some computational sub-fields of biology. Assuming they’re legit, they clearly aren’t working in evolution.

Read the whole thing there. He has several very illuminating examples of historical evo-fluffery, including one page of a manuscript that I’m going to put up here as a separate post, simply because it demands seeing in order to believe it.

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Immigration and Outsourcing

Immigration and outsourcing are not the answer to greater profits over time. To the contrary, they are a certain path toward destroying the very organization for which they are supposed to be generating increased profits.

Ubisoft is on the verge of complete collapse due to terrible decisions like trying to develop the new Prince of Persia in India, as legendary WoW producer Grummz explains:

Prince of Persia, why it was REALLY cancelled. Insider tells all. “The game is so bad…” This from my Ubisoft sources:

  • 90% developed by Ubisoft India.
  • Project was a disaster.
  • Transferred last minute to Ubisoft Montreal to “fix” it.
  • Game unfixable.
  • Cancelled.

Note that Ubisoft Montreal spent FOUR YEARS trying to fix it and they couldn’t. I can attest that my one experience working with Indian developers for 3M on a sales training software project was an absolute and utter catastrophe. They couldn’t implement even the simplest, most basic features with any degree of reliability, and as far as the graphics went, they appeared to be limited to the stick-figure level.

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Cooking With or Getting Cooked

AI Central has been upgraded and is now offering daily content. Today’s article is The Clanker in the Kitchen:

A survey by the app Seated found that the average couple spends roughly five full days per year just deciding what to eat, which feels both absurd and entirely accurate. Researchers call this the “invisible mental load,” and cooking sits squarely at its center, requiring not just the act of preparing food but the anticipation, organization, and constant recalibration that precedes it. For the person who carries this load, the question “what’s for dinner?” functions less as a question and more as a recurring task that never quite gets crossed off the list.

Which helps explain why a new generation of AI meal planning apps has found such an eager audience. Apps like Ollie, which has been featured in The Washington Post and Forbes, market themselves less as recipe databases and more as cognitive relief systems. “Put your meals on autopilot,” the homepage reads, with “Dinner done, mental load off” as the tagline. User testimonials cut straight to the emotional core of the value proposition, with one reading: “I feel pretty foolish to say an app has changed my life, but it has! It plans your groceries, it plans your meals. IT TAKES THE THINKING OUT.”

The pitch works precisely because it addresses something real. Decision fatigue is well-documented in psychology research as the phenomenon where the quality of our choices degrades as we make more of them throughout the day, and by dinnertime, after hours of decisions large and small, many of us default to whatever requires the least thought: takeout, frozen pizza, or cereal eaten standing over the sink. AI meal planners promise to front-load all those decisions at once, ideally on a Sunday afternoon when cognitive reserves are fuller, and then execute the plan automatically throughout the week.

I’ve drafted one of the devs from UATV to take the lead at AI Central, since he is a) far more technical than JDA or me and b) I’m far too busy analyzing ancient DNA and cranking out science papers and hard science fiction based on them to do more than a post or two a week there. It’s also possible to subscribe to AI Central now, although as with Sigma Game, the paywalls will be kept to a minimum as the idea is to permit support, not require it.

The reason I suggest that it is very important to at least get a free subscription to AI Central and make it a part of your daily routine is that if you have not yet begun to adopt AI of various sorts into your various performance functions, you will absolutely be left behind by those who do.

Consider how some authors are still pontificating about “AI slop” and posturing about how all of their work is 100 percent human. Meanwhile, I’m turning out several books per month with higher ratings than theirs, better sales than most of theirs, and producing the translations that native speakers at foreign language publishers deem both acceptable and publishable. For example, I haven’t even published THE FROZEN GENE yet, but LE GÈNE GELÉ is already translated into French utilizing a varied form of the Red Team Stress Test approach, already has an offer from a French publisher for the print edition, and has been very favorably reviewed by AIs not involved in the translation process.

Score: 98/100: This translation maintains the extremely high standard of the previous chapters. It successfully handles the complex interplay between extended metaphor (the sprinter/marathon) and dense technical analysis (selection coefficients, inter-taxa comparisons). The prose is confident, fluid, and intellectually rigorous. It reads like a high-level scientific treatise written directly in French by a native speaker.

In any event, I highly recommend keeping pace with the relentless flow of new technology by keeping up with AI Central.

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Vaccines are Organized Crime

This recently filed lawsuit could be some very effective lawfare, especially when one considers how difficult it’s going to be for the vaccine lobby to play their usual “it’s too dangerous to actually test vaccine safety” game in front of a court:

In a lawsuit filed today in federal court, Children’s Health Defense (CHD) and five other plaintiffs accused the American Academy of Pediatrics (AAP) of running a decades-long racketeering scheme to defraud American families about the safety of the childhood vaccine schedule.

The suit alleges that the AAP violated the Racketeer Influenced and Corrupt Organizations Act (RICO) by making “false and fraudulent” claims about the safety of the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention’s (CDC) childhood immunization schedule — while receiving funding from vaccine manufacturers and providing financial incentives to pediatricians who achieve high vaccination rates.

“For too long, the AAP has been held up on a pedestal, as if it were a font of science and integrity,” said CHD CEO Mary Holland. “Sadly, that’s not the case.”

Instead, Holland said, the AAP “is a front operation in a racketeering scheme involving Big Pharma, Big Medicine and Big Media, ready at every turn to put profits above children’s health. It’s time to face facts and see what the AAP is really about,” Holland said.

According to the complaint, the AAP has worked to conceal the findings of studies that the Institute of Medicine (IOM) — now known as the National Academy of Medicine — published in 2002 and 2013.

The IOM called for more research after concluding that no studies had ever been conducted to compare the health outcomes of vaccinated and unvaccinated children. The AAP’s conduct constitutes a pattern of fraud under RICO, a statute often used to prosecute organized crime, said Rick Jaffe, attorney for the plaintiffs.

Perhaps this will help shut down one of the wickedest of all industries. Perhaps not. But it’s a potentially effective line of attack, and the free pass on liability the industry was given from Congress isn’t going to help them very much here.

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A Question of Content

I have a lot of additional data that isn’t going to go in the book, and tends to be much more on the technical side. For example, this is the latest thing I’ve been running down, not because it’s necessary to any of the points I’m making, but because I’m interested in the tangential element that appeared in one of the necessary investigations.

  • Show the sex composition of Neolithic vs Modern samples (if very different, Y-chromosome artifacts are confirmed)
  • Check each outlier SNP individually with sex breakdowns
  • Flag if females have Y-chromosome data (impossible, means data quality issue)

I don’t really want to start yet another site devoted to this stuff, but I don’t want to bore everyone here to tears either. So, would a daily post on the science marginalia be of interest here, or should I try to find a different solution until I inevitably get bored of this sort of thing?

I very much appreciate the strong support that has been shown by everyone here in making Probability Zero a multi-category bestseller. But I also know that it’s not necessarily the content for which most people come here.

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More Books, More Better

We managed to untangle a few issues with Amazon and now the following books are available as both ebooks and audiobooks:

In other news, a new Midnight’s War novel by Chuck Dixon and me will be out very soon: The Damned Shall Dine. The print edition of Probability Zero will be released next week, along with the French print and ebook editions, and the follow-up to Probability Zero, which is a much deeper dive into the science and presents some legitimately astonishing conclusions, will be released the first week of February.

And be sure tune in to Arkhaven Nights on UATV tonight, as JDA and I will have a surprising announcement that combines the very best of all these possible worlds.

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Rethinking Human Evolution Again

Imagine that! The timelines of human evolution just magically changed again! And it’s really not good news for the Neo-Darwinians or the Modern Synthesis, while it simultaneously highlights the importance of Probability Zero and its mathematical approach to evolution.

A stunning discovery in a Moroccan cave is forcing scientists to reconsider the narrative of human origins. Unearthed from a site in Casablanca, 773,000-year-old fossils display a perplexing blend of ancient and modern features, suggesting that key traits of our species emerged far earlier and across a wider geographic area than previously believed…

The find directly challenges the traditional “out-of-Africa” model, which holds that anatomically modern humans evolved in Africa around 200,000 years ago before migrating and replacing other hominin species. Instead, it supports a more complex picture where early human populations left Africa well before fully modern traits had evolved, with differentiation happening across continents.

“The fossils show a mosaic of primitive and derived traits, consistent with evolutionary differentiation already underway during this period, while reinforcing a deep African ancestry for the H. sapiens lineage,” Hublin added.

Detailed analysis reveals the nuanced transition. One jaw shows a long, low shape similar to H. erectus, but its teeth and internal features resemble both modern humans and Neanderthals. The right canine is slender and small, akin to modern humans, while some incisor roots are longer, closer to Neanderthals. The molars present a unique blend, sharing traits with North African teeth, the Spanish species H. antecessor and archaic African H. erectus.

The fossils are roughly contemporaneous with H. antecessor from Spain, hinting at ancient interconnections. “The similarities between Gran Dolina and Grotte à Hominides are intriguing and may reflect intermittent connections across the Strait of Gibraltar, a hypothesis that deserves further investigation,” noted Hublin.

Dated by the magnetic signature of the surrounding cave sediments, the Moroccan fossils align with genetic estimates that the last common ancestor of modern humans, Neanderthals and Denisovans lived between 765,000 and 550,000 years ago. This discovery gives a potential face to that mysterious population.

The research, suggests that modern human traits did not emerge in a single, rapid event in one region. Instead, they evolved gradually and piecemeal across different populations in Africa, with connections to Eurasia, deep in the Middle Pleistocene.

This sort of article really underlines the nature of the innumeracy of the archeologists as well as the biologists. It’s not that they can’t do the basic arithmetic involved, it’s that they have absolutely no idea what the numbers they are throwing around signify, or understand the necessary second- and third-order implications of changing both their numbers and their assumptions.

For example, the reason the Out of Africa hypothesis was so necessary to the evolutionary timeline is because it kept the whole species in a nice, tight little package, evolving together and fixating together over time. But geographic dispersion necessarily prevents universal fixation. So, let’s take a look at how this new finding changes the math, because it is a significant complication for the orthodox model.

If human traits were evolving “gradually and piecemeal across different populations” spanning Africa and Eurasia as early as 773,000 years ago, then fixation had to occur separately in each isolated population before those populations could contribute to modern humans. This isn’t parallel processing that helps the model, it’s the precise opposite. Each isolated population is a separate fixation bottleneck that must be traversed independently.

Consider the simplest case: two isolated populations (Africa and Eurasia) that occasionally reconnect. For a trait to become universal in modern humans, one of two things must happen:

  1. Independent fixation: The same beneficial mutation arises and fixes independently in both populations. This requires the fixation event to happen twice, which squares the improbability.
  2. Migration and re-fixation: The mutation fixes in one population, then migrants carry it to the other population, where it must fix again from low frequency. This doubles the time requirement since the allele must go from rare-to-fixed twice in sequence.

If there were n substantially isolated populations contributing to modern human ancestry, and k of the 20 million fixations had to spread across all of them through migration and re-fixation, the time requirement multiplies accordingly.

The “mosaic” of traits—some modern, some archaic, some Neanderthal-like, some unique—found in the Moroccan fossils suggest that different features were fixing in different populations at different times, which is what one would expect. The eventual modern human phenotype was assembled from contributions across multiple semi-isolated groups. However, this means the 20 million fixations weren’t a single sequential process in a single lineage. They were distributed across multiple populations that had to:

  1. Fix different subsets of mutations locally
  2. Reconnect through migration
  3. Allow the locally-fixed alleles to spread and fix in the combined population
  4. Repeat for 773,000+ years

Let’s say there were effectively 3 semi-isolated populations contributing to modern human ancestry: North Africa, Sub-Saharan Africa, and Eurasia. This is the absolute minimum number. If half of the 20 million fixations had to spread across population boundaries after initially fixing locally, that’s 10 million alleles requiring a second fixation event after migration reintroduced them at low frequency.

The time requirement approximately doubles for those 10 million alleles (first fixation + migration + second fixation), while the original problem remains for the other 10 million.

Original shortfall: ~150,000-fold (from MITTENS)

Revised shortfall with geographic structure: ~300,000 to 450,000-fold

But this understates the issue. The real problem is that geographic structure reduces effective population size locally while increasing it globally.

  • Small local populations mean more drift, which sounds helpful for fixation
  • But small local populations also mean more mutations are lost to drift before they can spread
  • And the global population that must eventually carry the fixed allele is larger than any local population, meaning the final fixation is harder

The multiregional model doesn’t help Neo-Darwinism. It creates a nested fixation problem: alleles must fix locally (possible but slow), then spread through migration (slow), then fix in the receiving population (slow again), then spread further (slow), until global fixation is achieved (slowest of all).

The mathematical impossibility of TENS was just multiplied by at least a factor of 3. Notice how every time they find new evidence and adjust the narrative to accommodate it, they make the mathematical problem worse. The Moroccan fossils can’t save Neo-Darwinism. They’re just another shovel of dirt on the coffin.

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Russia Graciously Accedes

President Putin gives his blessing to the US acquisition of Greenland:

  • President Putin just dismantled the EU’s grip on Greenland with a “5D Chess” play that gives TRUMP a total free hand.
  • None of our Business” – Putin officially declares Russia won’t interfere, effectively clearing the path for a US-Greenland deal.
  • Putin cites the 1917 land sales between Denmark and the USA as a precedent. If they did it then, why not now?
  • Putin exposes Denmark’s “harsh” and “cruel” treatment of Greenland as a colony, framing the US move as a necessary rescue mission.
  • Putin runs the math: Comparing it to the Alaska purchase ($7.2M in 1867), he calculates Greenland’s value at roughly $200M–$1B in inflation-adjusted gold terms.

If it gets the US out of NATO and the troops out of Europe, then I’m all for it. And it really seems right that President Trump would return the favor with regards to Odessa.

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The End of Australia

The dirt isn’t magic and foreigners don’t care about your so-called “rights” derived from a god in whom they don’t believe:

The nation I knew and loved just died yesterday. Actually, it didn’t die, it was murdered by treasonous politicians and lobby groups.

All those people who would hear about tyranny and oppression and then bleat about “oh, it could never happen here” are about to get a good dose of reality – and they will get it good and hard.

The reason tyranny rarely did happen in Australia (nowhere is perfect) was because of legal and political principles which had developed in the mother country for centuries and continued here because the people believed in them.

The Mulit-culti brigade who wanted to replace the people with others from non-British/European backgrounds insisted that all we needed to do was to keep those ideals and principles.

It didn’t occur to them (or they didn’t let on) that different peoples would naturally have different ideals and principles.

They wouldn’t admit that we didn’t have magic dirt in Australia that foreigners could step onto and immediately be transformed into “Aussies” with the same beliefs and cultures as the locals.

Yesterday, the Federal Parliament passed the Combatting Antisemitism, Hate and Extremism legislation.

Despite the title, the bill doesn’t adequately define Antisemitism, Hate or Extremism. In other words, these will depend largely on the Government to decide what they are.

That doesn’t sound like a big deal but it should terrify you.

That’s because the Government now has the power to define these terms mostly as they like and prosecute people they don’t like with up to 15 years in jail.

The real poison in this bill, however, is that it smashes no less than four of the founding principles of British governance which have held sway here since its founding.

To be honest, I find it very difficult to be concerned about the fate of Australia, since it’s already a foregone conclusion that it’s going to be a Chinese colony by 2050 or so. This is exactly the sort of thing that is inevitable when you disarm yourselves, turn your government over to women and foreigners, and then… profit? This outcome was inevitable from the moment Australia abandoned the last vestiges of its White Australia policy in 1973.

So posture bravely all you like about “don’t mess with Texas” or “try that in a small town” or whatever, but no words, no ideology, and no bravado will ever prove an adequate substitute for simply keeping those who don’t share your heritage, your history, your religion, or your values out of your midst.

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