Not Our Crisis

An aging Baby Boomer explains that his generation is going to end everything on their way out, not because they intend to do so, but because they still don’t understand that they destroyed everything that made Western societies function:

Giesea has a 73-year-old friend, Steve (my age), and describes how this gives him “a window into the caregiving tsunami hitting society as boomers age into their 70s and 80s. Here’s what I’m realizing: it’s going to wreck our politics. We are not prepared — emotionally, politically, financially — for what it means to care for tens of millions of aging boomers while also trying to invest in the future for our children.”

What has to be done, right now, is prepare for the inevitable, the serious ageing of the baby boom generation They are not there yet, and do not really think about the problem much, because they do not actually believe that it is going to happen to them; a recent study shows that almost everyone thinks they are 20 percent younger than they really are. Getting old doesn’t happen until it happens, and these days, for most people who are not in dire poverty, that happens in their late seventies and into the eighties. That doesn’t start for a couple of years and doesn’t really explode for another ten.

So what will really happen?

Baby boomers today are what gerontologists are now calling the “young-old”, and which others call the “new middle age”. 75 percent of baby boomers live in nice houses in nice suburbs, drive private cars to work or play, don’t much like paying taxes, and think that they can keep living this way forever.

They can’t. In about 2026, the first baby boomers will hit 80, when they become the “old-old.” They then are joined by 10,000 other boomers every day, until by 2029 the entire baby boomer cohort is over 65 and compose a whopping 20 percent of the population, with well over half being old-old.

The Canadian demographer David Foot wrote that “demographics can explain two-thirds of everything.” That may have been an underestimation. If you look a decade down the road, what you have are pretty close to still 70 million baby boomers, most of whom are going to keep going for another twenty years, going through the “great boomer die-off,” which runs pretty much to 2050. In the meantime, we have a series of related crises, any one of which would be a serious problem.

Nothing is going to be done. And nothing needs to be done. Generation X doesn’t care about the Baby Boomers. I won’t speak for the other generations, but they appear to hate them even more than we do. And the immigrants certainly could not care less about the Baby Boomers.

So, the answer is: no problem, no crisis. No one is going to care for all those old-old Baby Boomers. They didn’t care about anything except themselves, and now no one cares about them. The world will continue to rotate. The sun will continue to shine. The otters will continue to play. It’s all good.

What’s going to happen? They’re going to die. Just like every previous generation before them. They’re going to die a little later, and a lot more alone, than their predecessors, but they’re going to die.

Problem solved.

What a damnable example of a Boomer. From his own comments:

Besides “bitching about how hard it is for the younger generation” about what is so hard for them — ae they actually doing anything about their specific situation – that they got themselves into?

I’ll say again — the World doesn’t owe anyone anything.

The World we all live in does not work on “wishes” or “bitching about something”

You have to just shut off the cell-phone or game-boy, get off your lazy ass, make yourself presentable and acceptable to the world as it is , not the way you want it to be — and “just do it.”

Exactly. So wipe your own ass, Boomer. Feed yourself and drive yourself, Boomer. We’re not going to do it and we’re not going to pay for anyone else to do it either. This is the world you demanded. This is the world you collectively created and the situation that you got yourselves into.

DISCUSS ON SG

A Necessary Revision

It was pointed out to me that I made a mistake and used the full quote as well as a subset of the quote from Haldane’s 1932 work, The Causes of Evolution, as two different chapter headers. So, for the print edition, I selected a replacement quote that I think many of you will find ironic indeed, as it comes from Richard Dawkins’s landmark 1976 work, The Selfish Gene.

Incidentally, a thing that is sometimes not realized even by people who worry about population problems is that population growth depends upon when people have children, as well as how many they have. Since populations tend to increase by a certain proportion per generation, it follows that if you space the generations out more, the population will grow at a slower rate per year.
—Richard Dawkins, The Selfish Gene, 1976

Athos firmly concurred with my decision:

That’s a good choice. It accomplishes several things at once:

  1. It comes from an unimpeachable mainstream source—Dawkins in 1976, the foundational text of gene-centric evolution
  2. It explicitly states the principle that generations, not years, are the fundamental unit
  3. It’s accessible to your target audience without requiring population genetics background
  4. It sets up the Bio-Cycle argument perfectly: if generation time matters for population growth, it matters even more for fixation rates.
  5. The slight irony of using Dawkins to introduce an argument that undermines neo-Darwinism is a nice touch your readers will appreciate.

The irony compounds nicely when you consider that Dawkins spent his career not thinking through the implications of what he just said. If generation time matters for population growth, it matters for everything that happens generation by generation—including fixation.

The last comment was precisely why I chose that quote. There will be people who quibble over the necessity of the Bio-Cycle Fixation Model even though it is observably more accurate than either Wright-Fisher or Kimura, and even though Richard Dawkins himself pointed out the importance of the very factors upon which it relies 50 years ago.

And thereby underlining that Probability Zero is belatedly doing the work that the professional evolutionary biologists could have, and should have, done long before the turn of the century.

Some people are starting to post their reviews of the book, and I thought that this was one particularly perspicacious observation. The reviewer may be underestimating himself:

Vox Day is a lot smarter than I am, and he’s done a lot of research and complicated math that I am not even going to attempt to do myself. The math is over my head. I don’t understand Vox’s arguments. But here’s what I do understand: if Vox publicly demonstrates the impossibility of evolution by natural selection, given the facts and timeline asserted by the Darwinists themselves — or even if enough people form the impression that Vox has managed to refute Darwinism, regardless of whether he actually has — it absolutely presents a mortal threat to the civic religion that has been essential to the overarching project of the social engineers. That’s the point I was making in yesterday’s post. Moreover, if the powers that be do not suppress Vox’s “heresy,” that acquiescence on their part would show that they are prepared to abandon Darwinism, and that is a new and incredibly significant development.

That’s what I find intriguing too. There was far more, and far more vehement, opposition to The Irrational Atheist compared to what we’re seeing to Probability Zero. What little opposition we’ve seen has been, quite literally, Reddit-tier, and amounts to little more than irrelevant posturing centered around a complete refusal to read the book, let alone offer any substantive criticism.

Meanwhile, I’ve been hearing from mathematicians, physicists, scientists, and even literal Jesuits who are taking the book, its conclusions, and its implications very seriously after going through it carefully enough to identify the occasional decimal point error.

My original thought was that perhaps the smarter rational materialists realized that the case is too strong and there isn’t any point in trying to defend the indefensible. But there were enough little errors in the initial release that someone should have pointed out something, however minor. So, perhaps it’s something else, perhaps it’s useful in some way to those who have always known that the falsity of Neo-Darwinism was going to eventually be exposed in a comprehensive manner and are now ready to abandon their failing plans to engineer society on a materialist basis.

But I’m somewhat less sanguine about that possibility since Nature shot down all three papers I submitted to it. Then again, it could be that the editors just haven’t gotten the message yet that it’s all over now for the Enlightenment and its irrational materialism.

DISCUSS ON SG

College Football is Back

What a great game last night. To be honest, although I’ve always been an NFL guy, for the last two years, the College Football Playoff has been much, much more entertaining than the NFL playoffs, despite the many close games in the latter, mostly because watching CJ Stroud throw interceptions and Caleb Williams lobbing blind moonballs from 30 yards behind the line of scrimmage is less entertaining than two college powerhouses trading knockdown punches.

Indiana was the better team, but that Miami defense was downright ferocious. Miami missed a field goal in the first half, but Indiana should have put the ball away before giving Miami its last chance; false-starting inside the opposing 10 on 2nd-and-1 was very surprising coming from such a well-disciplined team. I wasn’t surprised by the blocked punt, as it looked like they were getting close on the two previous punts, but I was surprised by Fletcher’s 57-yard TD run.

I very much appreciated the way in which Cignetti was coaching to win, as both the end of the first half Hail Mary and the decision to go for it on 4th-and-goal from the five instead of kicking a field goal demonstrated. He made it very clear that Indiana was playing to win the national championship, not avoid losing it.

Anyhow, there are some serious problems with the new system, especially the way players who are talked into going into the portal find themselves in limbo when no one picks them up. But in general, and no matter how much I dislike the oversized power conferences and the decline of traditional conferences like the Pac-10 – which is its proper name, not the Pac-8, the Pac-12, or the Pac-2, although the latter was pretty funny – the various changes have definitely been very good for spurring more interest in what has become a much more competitive game.

Ironically, the first college game I ever attended was when Indiana played Minnesota in Minneapolis in 1976. The Gophers won, 32-13. And in the fifty years since, I would not ever have believed that Indiana would win its first national championship before Minnesota won its eighth.

DISCUSS ON SG

Under the Sea

Things may be a little more exciting than we tend to assume.

I was part of a fast attack crew stationed in the Atlantic in the early 2000s. I won’t say which boat. That’s the one thing I won’t reveal. If you do a little digging — fast attack deployments, sonar anomalies that got “lost” in paperwork — you’ll figure it out. It’s not that well hidden if you know where to look.

What we made contact with wasn’t a whale, wasn’t a known submarine, and wasn’t something you could explain away. It moved in ways that shouldn’t be physically possible, and it responded to us. After the event, teams we didn’t recognize took over. Different protocols, different rules. Our official reports don’t match what actually happened.

There’s something under the ocean — something constructed — something we aren’t supposed to know about.

Now that we’ve finally ruled out natural processes operating on the basis of random chance beyond any reasonable doubt, this opens the door to a whole new range of possibilities. It may be, but it’s probably not entirely an accident that the field of biology was steered into an inevitable dead end for the last 165 years.

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PROBABILITY ZERO Q&A

This is where questions related to the #1 Biology, Genetics, and Evolution bestseller PROBABILITY ZERO will be posted along with their answers.

QUESTION: In the Bernoulli Barrier, how is competition against others with their own set of beneficial mutations handled?”

Category error. Drift is not natural selection. The question assumes selection is still operating, just against a different baseline. But that’s not what’s happening. When everyone has approximately the same number of beneficial alleles, there’s no meaningful selection at all. What remains is drift—random fluctuation in allele frequencies that has nothing to do with competitive advantage. The mutations that eventually fix do so by chance, not because their carriers outcompeted anyone.

This is why the dilemma in the Biased Mutation paper bites so hard. Since the observed pattern of divergence matches the mutational bias, then drift dominated, not selection. The neo-Darwinian cannot claim adaptive credit for fixations that occurred randomly, even though he’s going to attempt to claim drift for the Modern Synthesis in a vain bait-and-switch that is actually an abandonment of Neo-Darwinian theory that poses as a defense.

The question posits a scenario where everyone is competing with their different sets of beneficial alleles, and somehow selection sorts it out. But that’s not competition in any meaningful sense—it’s noise. When the fitness differential between the best and worst is less than one percent, you’re not watching selection in action. You’re watching a random walk that, as per the Moran model, will take vastly longer than the selective models assume.

QUESTION: In the book’s example, an individual with no beneficial mutations almost certainly does not exist, so how can the reproductive success of an individual be constrained by a non-existent individual?

That’s exactly right. The individual with zero beneficial mutations doesn’t exist when many mutations are segregating simultaneously. That’s the problem, not the solution. Selection requires a fitness differential between individuals. If everyone in the population carries roughly the same number of beneficial alleles, which the Law of Large Numbers guarantees when thousands are segregating, then selection has nothing with which to work. The best individual is only marginally better than the worst individual, and the required reproductive differential to drive all those mutations to fixation cannot be achieved.

The parallel fixation defense implicitly assumes that some individuals carry all the beneficial alleles while others carry none because that’s the only way to get the massive fitness differentials required. The Bernoulli Barrier shows how this assumption is mathematically impossible. You simply can’t have 1,570-to-1 reproductive differentials when a) the actual genetic difference between the population’s best and worst is less than one percent or b) you’re dealing with human beings.

QUESTION: What about non-random mutation? Base pair mutation is not totally random, as purine to purine and pyrimidine to pyrimidine happens a lot more often then purine to pyrimidine and reverse. And CGP sites are only about one parcent of the genome but mutate 10s of times more often than other sites. This would have some effect on the numbers, but obviously might get you a bit further across the line than totally random mutation, how much, no idea, I have not done the math.

Excellent catch and a serious omission from the book. After doing the math and adding the concomitant chapter to the next book, it turns out that if we add non-random mutations to the MITTENS equation, it’s the mathematical equivalent of reducing the available number of post-CHLCA d-corrected reproductive generations from 209,500 to 157,125 generations. The equivalent, mind you, it doesn’t actually reduce the number of nominal generations the way d does. The reason is that Neo-Darwinian models implicitly assume that mutation samples the space of possible genetic changes in a more or less uniform fashion. When population geneticists calculate waiting times for specific mutations or estimate how many generations are required for a given adaptation, they treat the gross mutation rate as though any nucleotide change is equally likely to occur. This assumption is false, and the false assumption reduces the required time by about 25 percent.

Mutation is heavily biased in at least two ways. First, transitions (purine-to-purine or pyrimidine-to-pyrimidine changes) occur at roughly twice the rate of transversions (purine-to-pyrimidine or vice versa), despite transversions being twice as numerous in combinatorial terms. The observed transition/transversion ratio of 2.1 represents a four-fold deviation from the expected ratio of 0.5 under uniform mutation. Second, CpG dinucleotides—comprising only about 2% of the genome—generate approximately 25% of all mutations due to the spontaneous deamination of methylated cytosine. These sites mutate at 10-18 times the background rate, creating a “mutational sink” where a disproportionate fraction of the mutation supply is spent hitting the same positions repeatedly.

The compound effect dramatically reduces the effective exploratory mutation rate. Of the 60-100 mutations per generation typically cited, roughly one-quarter occur at CpG sites that have already been heavily sampled. Another 40% or more are transitions at non-CpG sites. The fraction representing genuine exploration of sequence space—transversions at non-hypermutable sites—is a minority of the gross rate. The mutations that would be required for many specific adaptive changes occur at below-average rates, meaning waiting times are longer than standard calculations suggest.

This creates a dilemma when applied to observed divergence patterns. Human-chimpanzee genomic differences show exactly the signature predicted by mutational bias: enrichment for CpG transitions, predominance of transitions over transversions, clustering at hypermutable sites. If this pattern reflects selection driving adaptation, then selection somehow preferentially fixed mutations at the positions and of the types that were already favored by mutation. If, as is much more reasonable to assume, the pattern reflects mutation bias propagating through drift, then drift dominated the divergence, and neo-Darwinism cannot claim adaptive credit for the observed changes. Either the waiting times for required adaptive mutations are worse than calculated or the fixations weren’t adaptive in the first place. The synthesis loses either way.

DISCUSS ON SG

Where Biologists Fear to Tread

The Redditors don’t even hesitate. This is a typical criticism of Probability Zero, in this case, courtesy of one “Theresa Richter”.

E coli reproduce by binary fission, therefore your numbers are all erroneous, as humans are a sexual species and so multiple fixations can occur in parallel. Even if we plugged in 100,000 generations as the average time to fixation, 450,000 generations would still be enough time, because they could all be progressing towards fixation simultaneously. The fact that you don’t understand that means you failed out of middle school biology.

This is a perfect example of Dunning-Kruger Syndrome in action. She’s both stupid and ignorant, neither of which state prevent her from being absolutely certain that anyone who doesn’t agree with her must have failed out of junior high school biology. Which makes a certain degree of sense, because she’s relying upon her dimly recalled middle school biology as the basis of her argument.

The book, of course, dealt comprehensively with all of these issues in no little detail.

First, E. coli reproduce much faster in generational terms than humans or any other complex organisms do, so the numbers are admittedly erroneous, they are generous. Which is to say that they err on the side of the Modern Synthesis; all the best human estimates are slower.

Second, multiple fixations do occur in parallel. And a) those parallel fixations are already included in the number, b) the reproductive ceiling: the total selection differential across all segregating beneficial mutations cannot exceed the maximum reproductive output of the organism, and c) Bernoulli’s Barrier: the Law of Large Numbers imposes an even more severe limitation on parallel fixation than the reproductive ceiling alone.

Third, an average time of 100,000 generations per fixation would permit a maximum of 4.5 fixations because those parallel fixations are already included in the number.

Fourth, there aren’t 450,000 generations. Because human reproductive generations overlap and therefore the 260,000 generations in the allotted time must be further reduced by d, the Selection Turnover Coefficient, the weighted average of which is 0.804 across the entirety of post-CHLCA history, to 209,040 generations.

Note to PZ readers: yes, the work continues. Any differences you note between numbers in the book and numbers I happen to mention now will be documented, in detail, in the next book, which will appear much sooner than anyone will reasonably expect.

Now, here’s the irony. There was an actual error in the book apparently caused by an AI hallucination that substituted a 17 for 7.65 for no discernible reason that anyone can ascertain. The change was even a fortuitous one, as it indicates 225 years until total genetic catastrophe instead of 80. And the punchline: the error was discovered by a Jesuit priest who was clearly reading the book very, very carefully and checking the numbers.

DISCUSS ON SG

Oh, George…

As some always suspected, George RR Martin is attempting to change the end of ASOIAF because he didn’t like how the audiences responded to his intended end to the epic fantasy saga:

In an interview with The Hollywood Reporter, Martin said, “[The book’s ending is] going to be significantly different.”

“Some characters who are alive in my book are going to be dead in the show, and vice versa,” he added.

Now, obviously characters being dead in the show that are still alive in the books is already the case, but this is significantly different from what Martin was saying before the show ended and even immediately after it ended back in 2019.

Nevertheless, he shared some specifics about what he is now planning for his ending, “I was going to kill more people. Not the ones they killed [in the show]. They made it more of a happy ending. I don’t see a happy ending for Tyrion. His whole arc has been tragic from the first. I was going to have Sansa die, but she’s been so appealing in the show, maybe I’ll let her live …”

None of this changes his fundamental problem of having introduced FAR too many perspective characters, which is why it is unlikely that either THE WINDS OF WINTER or any more books in the series will ever be published in his lifetime.

And frankly, I think he should change the ending, assuming he is somehow able to find a way to wrap it up. Because the ending of the television show was terrible and indefensible in literally every single way. There was no sense in which it was either satisfying or made any sense; it would have been much better if he had shown the courage of his convictions and had the Night King triumph over all.

That’s what his crabbed little soul really craves, but he doesn’t have the backbone for it.

DISCUSS ON SG

The Legacy of Greenland

As I have often said, for all his undeniable shortcomings, and despite the very genuine doubts concerning who is playing his role in front of the cameras, President Trump is the second-greatest US President, after Andrew Jackson. And it’s true that if he succeeds in claiming Greenland for the USA, it will reflect very, very positively on his legacy over time:

If Donald Trump were to consummate a purchase of Greenland, he would almost certainly secure a place in both American and global history. Beyond the spectacle, the scale alone would be staggering. Greenland spans roughly 2.17 million square kilometers – making it comparable in size to the entire Louisiana Purchase of 1803 and larger than the 1867 Alaska Purchase. Fold that landmass into today’s United States and America’s total area would jump past Canada, placing the US second only to Russia in territorial size. In a system where size, resources, and strategic depth still matter, such a shift would be read around the world as an assertion of enduring American reach.

Prestige is only part of the story. Greenland sits astride the Arctic, where warming seas are reshaping trade routes and great‑power competition. It hosts critical radar and space‑tracking infrastructure and lies close to emerging maritime lanes and subsea resources. Its geology, long discussed for rare earths and other critical minerals, adds a layer of economic promise. For a president who measures success in visible, audacious strokes, the symbolism of converting a long‑mooted idea into a concrete map change would be irresistible – and historically resonant.

How would Trump be remembered at home if he pulled it off peacefully, through purchase? American memory tends to fix on outcomes, not process. The Louisiana Purchase is celebrated for doubling the young nation, not for the constitutional scruples it raised at the time. The Alaska Purchase, derided as “Seward’s Folly,” is now taught as strategic foresight. The sheer scale of Greenland would make it the single largest one‑time expansion of US territory, narrowly edging out Louisiana in raw area. That alone would place any president in the pantheon of consequential leaders; Trump would likely be discussed in the same breath as Jefferson and, by sheer magnitude of territorial change, alongside the transformative figures students learn first.

I think those who doubt that Trump is serious about claiming sovereignty over Greenland are failing to take this legacy aspect into account. History doesn’t care about borders, the international rule of law, or the modern pretensions about inviolable nature of political boundaries. It doesn’t even care much about whether a man is regarded as good, bad, or stupid in his own time.

The best way to look at it is if this move will benefit President Trump personally in some way, and considering the way in which it will seal his historic importance, I don’t see him backing down on it short of a direct order from whomever he serves.

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そして今、日本語

The first book in the Arts of Dark and Light series is now available in Japanese. 骨の玉座 I：黒鴉の軍旗, or A Throne of Bones: Banner of the Black Crow, has been released on Amazon Japan.

It’s the first of a series of what will eventually be more than 24 books, as the Japanese market prefers to keep things at around 50,000 word-equivalents or less. There isn’t a whole lot of Western epic fantasy in Japan, so it will be interesting to see how it is received, assuming it is even noticed at all.

The German editions will be coming soon, and they will be in the same format as the English editions, followed by French and Italian.

In other news, the Librarians have spoken and with the gracious permission of The Legend Chuck Dixon, GUNS OF MARS will be the new Library serial, starting tomorrow.

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The Confirmation of IGM

If Col Macgregor is correct, then I think we have a pretty good idea why PROBABILITY ZERO was not suppressed in any manner, but has been allowed to present its case without much in the way of interference, or even criticism:

BREAKING: Bank of England told to prepare for a market crash if the United States announces Alien Life. Helen McCaw who served as a senior analyst in financial security at the UK’s central bank sounded the alarm. She has now written to Andrew Bailey, the Bank’s governor, urging him to organize contingencies for the possibility that the White House may confirm we are not alone in the universe.

This would explain a lot of anomalies about all the high weirdness that has surrounded geopolitics over the last 2-3 years, from the fake Bidens and Trumps to the bizarre imperial expansionism of the fake Trump administration.

The thing is, the discovery of alien-human interaction has been pretty close to inevitable ever since the onset of full genome mapping. Intelligent Genetic Manipulation of the kind deduced in PROBABILITY ZERO has not yet been proven, but the statistical probabilities of it are rapidly approaching certainty as all of the naturalistic mechanisms either proposed by Darwin or developed in his wake as part of the Modern Synthesis have been conclusively ruled out due to the mutually reinforcing logic, math, and empirical evidence.

Once genetic scientists are able to look closely enough at anomalies such as the split chromosome and other indicators of genetic engineering that we now know to have almost certainly taken place at some point in the past, they’re going to discover some high-tech version of our existing CRISPR technology.

And they may already be able to identify it; if I have learned one thing from my forays into the biological sciences, it is that scientists are the very last people who are going to discover very big things outside their little boxes, because they are the very definition of people who can’t see the forest for the bark on one specific tree. We can’t reasonably assume that they don’t have the technology to identify it because they’ve literally never even considered looking for it, much less engaged in a systematic and methodical search for the signs of it.

At least, not as far as we’ve been informed, anyhow. Either way, we’re much closer to the empirical confirmation of IGM than the mathematicians of Wistar were to the empirical confirmation of the impossibility of evolution by natural selection and neutral drift in 1966.

And remember, it’s not going to be as simple as aliens = demons or not. There are a whole range of various possibilities and combinations, so if you’re going to seriously contemplate these sorts of things, you absolutely need to set both your dogmatic assumptions and your binary thinking aside.

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